Short term response is predictive of long term response to acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in Alzheimer’s disease: A starting point to explore Bayesian approximation in clinical practice

This study was aimed at identifying, in 203 patients with Alzheimer's disease followed during long-term treatment with Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs), the predictive factors of the clinical response among cognition (MMSE), functioning (BADL and IADL) measures and age and gender at the baseline (T0). The ANCOVA test showed a significant association between MMSE scores at time T0 and T3, and the variation T9 to T0, T15 to T0 and T21 to T0 of the MMSE scores, using also gender, age and drug as covariates. The significance was higher for the patients affected by mild dementia. Regarding functional activities, a significant relationship was detected, by the ANCOVA test, only between the scores at T3 and the variation T15 to T0 for BADL, and the variation T9 to T0, T15 to T0 for IADL, respectively. Our results confirm, in a real world setting, that ChEIs provide long-term cognitive benefit, which is correlated to, and predictable by, the short-term response (within the third month) as well as the cognitive status (evaluated by means of the MMSE) at the beginning of the treatment. These factors should be the basis of any cost/effectiveness algorithm in health economic decision models.